CFL Previews - September 30-October 1, Week Fourteen

Football Betting Lines

09/28/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -

MONTREAL ALOUETTES (7-5) AT WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS (8-4)

DATE & TIME: Friday, September 30th, 7:30 p.m. (et).

GAME NOTES: A battle for supremacy in the East Division this week, the matchup between the Montreal Alouettes and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Canad Inns Stadium is as much about who will be on the field and in the middle of the action as it will be about who is missing this time around.

Last week both clubs had their foundations shaken when Montreal quarterback Anthony Calvillo failed to finish the 34-21 win over Edmonton due to a vicious hit late in the third quarter that laid out the signal-caller. As of Tuesday, Calvillo was taking snaps with the first team in practice and confirmed that he wasn't feeling any ill effects after hitting his head on the turf versus the Eskimos.

Unfortunately, the Blue Bombers didn't get nearly the same good news as they lost running back Fred Reid for the remainder of the season after he tore his ACL. Reid exits as the second-leading rusher in the CFL with 759 yards and four touchdowns on a league-high 181 carries. Even worse for the Bombers is news that backup Carl Volny is also gone for the season as he too suffered a torn ACL, and that means Winnipeg is now desperate to find someone, anyone to handle the ball coming out of the backfield at this late stage of the campaign.

Volny actually led Winnipeg in rushing last week with 59 yards on seven attempts, as the squad suffered a narrow 25-24 loss to Toronto on the road. After Reid on that list with his 44 yards on eight attempts were quarterbacks Alex Brink and Buck Pierce with 11 and nine yards rushing, respectively, which means Winnipeg could be in some serious trouble this week, and in the coming weeks.

Brink, who dislocated the shoulder of his non-throwing arm in the fourth quarter, and Pierce combined to convert 17-of-26 passes for 189 yards, while each tossed an interception and was sacked once before leaving for the sidelines. Eventually the Blue Bombers were forced to turn to import QB Justin Goltz who connected on 3-of-6 passes for another 36 yards and one TD, but he too was under pressure and suffered a couple of sacks in the loss.

At this stage the Bombers are trying to count how many players they have available for Friday's huge game and while they ended up going down the list for a serviceable QB last week, more than likely Pierce will be ready to handle his duties once again even though he re-aggravated bruised ribs in the first half last week. The question now is whether or not he'll be restricted in his running since Winnipeg is light in that department and Pierce is already ailing.

Even though the offense has been beaten and bruised, the Winnipeg defense is still one of the best in the business after 12 games, allowing a league-low 301.3 ypg. The Blue Bombers, thanks in part to having the top mark of plus-17 in the turnover department, also have the second-best scoring defense in the CFL thus far with just 23.1 ppg permitted, something they'll need to count on if Calvillo is back at 100 percent.

Even before taking a seat on the bench last week Calvillo, who leads the league with 3,628 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, against a mere four interceptions, threw for 270 yards and a couple more TDs for the Als in the win over Edmonton. Once again, Jamel Richardson managed to reel in a game-high eight passes for 112 yards and a major even though he's on everyone's list as the league's top-flight receiver. Helping out on the ground was Brandon Whitaker with 20 carries for 113 yards and a score.

As great as Calvillo, the only QB in the league with an efficiency rating over 98, sporting a mark of 105.2, the 18-year veteran has been given new life with the play of Richardson this season. The Texas native, already notching his fourth straight 1,000 yard season, is by far the most productive receiver in the CFL this year with 77 catches for 1,192 yards and nine TDs. Even though defenses know they need to plan for him they still can't help but marvel at the skills that have him posting 250 more receiving yards than his closest competitor right now.

Montreal owns a 42-33-2 record in the regular-season series against the Blue Bombers dating back to 1946, although Winnipeg won the most recent meeting by a score of 25-23 just two weeks ago. The teams are scheduled to meet once more this season on October 22 in Winnipeg.

Even an Anthony Calvillo who is not quite 100 percent is still much better than many of his contemporaries which is reason enough to pick out Montreal for a road win this week.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Montreal 38, Winnipeg 20

EDMONTON ESKIMOS (7-5) AT BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS (6-6)

DATE & TIME: Friday, September 30, 10:30 p.m. (et).

GAME NOTES: BC Place is scheduled to be open for business this week as the British Columbia Lions entertain the Edmonton Eskimos in CFL action on Friday night.

The Lions, who have been playing their home games at Empire Field while BC Place has been getting a facelift, have a record of just 2-3 in their home dates thus far in 2011, so perhaps the change of scenery will perk up the club. Although, after an 0-5 start to the campaign there's been no team hotter than the Lions who have won five straight and six of their last seven outings in order to become a major player in the Western Division where they are just a game off the pace set by the Eskimos and Calgary Stampeders.

For the third time in the last five games the BC defense came ready to play as it held Saskatchewan to a meaningless five points in a 37-point romp. It was the third time in four games that the Lions had held the opposition to single digits in scoring and during this current win streak British Columbia has allowed an average of less than 10 points per outing. And really, the defense for the Lions has been even better than that, considering the Roughriders scored their final two points of the meeting after BC kicker Paul McCallum conceded in the end zone.

Lions quarterback Travis Lulay found plenty of gaps in the Saskatchewan defense as he converted 19-of-26 passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns, with one of his passes to Arland Bruce in the second quarter measuring out to 100 yards. Bruce finished with just two catches, but with an average of 58 yards per grab. Geroy Simon accounted for a game-high nine catches for 96 yards and the other touchdown through the air for the visitors.

McCallum was a hefty contributor to the bottom line as well as he knocked through all four of his field goal tries and finished with 16 points, compared to just three points for his counterpart on the Riders.

Against the Montreal Alouettes last week, Edmonton again got off to a slow start with just a single point through the first quarter, eventually posting just 10 points in the second half en route to a 34-21 setback at home. Defensively the Esks managed to knock out Montreal quarterback Anthony Calvillo in the third quarter, but still the Edmonton offense struggled to produce when it had the opportunity.

Ricky Ray connected on just 14 passes the entire night, on 26 attempts, leading to 213 yards and a major, but he was picked off once and sacked three times, the latter bringing the team's overall rushing efforts down to only 100 yards. Fred Stamps caught a one-yard TD pass late in the fourth quarter from Ray, but it was Adarius Bowman who did the majority of the damage for the Eskimos further down the field with his five catches for 132 yards.

For the first three games of this season there was no one better than Ray with the ball in his hands, throwing for more than 1,000 yards and six touchdowns, without a single interception. In August the gunslinger hit a few bumps in the road with a couple of games in which he tossed three picks and had just a single passing major to show for his efforts, but in the last four outings he's back to being more conservative, and that might be just what the Eskimos need right now to keep them level.

Over on the other side, Lulay has thrown for a career-high 3,168 yards, although that should be taken with a grain of salt seeing as how this is just his third year in the league and really his first as a full-time starter for the Lions. But still, Lulay's progress has been very promising, even if he is the only regular starter who is converting passes at less than 62 percent, hitting just 58.3 percent of his attempts thus far.

Unfortunately for Lulay, the Lions have one of the weaker rushing attacks in the CFL this season, averaging just 96.8 ypg, which is why the team needs him to perform at a higher level than most.

The good news for Lulay and the BC offense is that the defense has been dominant this season, allowing a league-low 20.8 ppg, thanks in part to a pass defense that has collected a league-high 16 interceptions in order to make the Lions one of only two teams in the league to have a turnover margin that is in double digits in their favor.

Edmonton owns a huge lead in the all-time, regular-season series between these two programs at 102-69-4, although the Lions crushed the Eskimos in an unsightly 36-1 final on the road in the most recent meeting back on August 19.

As long as Ray can keep from making mistakes the Eskimos will have a fighting chance in this one, but there is something to be said for the Lions being able to prowl again in a refurbished BC Place.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: British Columbia 31, Edmonton 24

SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS (4-8) AT CALGARY STAMPEDERS (7-5)

DATE & TIME: Saturday, October 1, 4:00 p.m. (et).

GAME NOTES: Still tied for first place in the West Division standings, the Calgary Stampeders try to get back on the right track this weekend as they entertain the Saskatchewan Roughriders in a divisional showdown at McMahon Stadium.

Calgary, which was an impressive 6-2 entering the month of September, has fallen on hard times with just one win in the last four outings. Thankfully, that one triumph was a 30-20 decision against Edmonton on the road back on September 9 or else the Stamps would not be in the position they are today at the top of the standings with the Eskimos.

Last weekend, the Stampeders took part in the second annual Touchdown Atlantic contest in Moncton and was crushed by the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in a 55-36 final, their second consecutive setback. Henry Burris had touchdown passes of nine and 35 yards to Romby Bryant in the first and second quarters, respectively, the quarterback finishing the day 13-of-23 for 177 yards, with one interception while picking himself up after four sacks. Reserve quarterback Drew Tate saw action as well as he hit on 8-of-15 passes for 104 yards and a pair of majors to keep things interesting.

Bryant finished with five catches for 75 yards and three TDs through the air, while Nik Lewis generated another 95 yards on eight receptions for the Stamps. Ken-Yon Rambo, who caught a 17-yard TD strike from Tate in the final minute of the fourth quarter, was responsible for three receptions for 71 yards.

Running back Jon Cornish, who got the start over Joffrey Reynolds who was a healthy scratch, finished with 84 yards on just nine carries. Reynolds, who has just as many fumbles (three) as he does TDs on the ground this season, has been marginal at best for much of the campaign, gaining 15 yards or less in three of his last four outings.

As for the Roughriders, they too put another tally in the loss column last week, but in their case the offense barely showed up as they were blown away by the resurgent BC Lions in a 42-5 decision at home no less. Kicker Chris Milo accounted for the only offensive score of the day for the Riders with a 29-yard field goal in the final seconds of the second quarter. The other two points were registered on a safety when BC kicker Paul McCallum conceded in the end zone late in the second half.

Maintaining possession of the ball for less than 24 minutes, Saskatchewan managed a mere 48 yards rushing and had quarterback Darian Durant not scrambled for 16 yards on one of his three runs the numbers would be even worse. Before giving way to backup Ryan Dinwiddie, Durant converted 15-of-25 passes for 188 yards, was sacked twice and had two passes picked off, one of which was returned for a touchdown. Dinwiddie hit on 6-of-13 passes for another 90 inconsequential yards.

Durant, who threw for more than 5,500 yards a season ago, tends to gamble a bit too much with his passes which is why, over the course of his six-year career, he has almost as many interceptions (62) as he does TD passes (74). Four times this season Durant has thrown multiple picks in a game and only five times has he tossed at least two TDs in a contest, so for the most part the numbers tend to balance each other out.

Since Durant fancies himself as an effective ground gainer, having put up 339 yards on 46 attempts, he tends to take away carries from teammates like Wes Cates (88 carries, 384 yards, four TDs) who could be doing so much more for the club if only he was given more opportunities.

The Stamps often find themselves in a similar situation with Burris who is second on his team in rushing with 339 yards and three majors, but in his case he's averaging better than nine yards per attempt which means he isn't always scrambling out of necessity.

With respect to the all-time, regular-season series between the two clubs, Calgary is out in front with a record of 115-87-9 dating back to 1945. The Stamps won the most recent meeting back in August by a 45-35 score which means the club has taken three in a row and four of the last five encounters. The teams are set to meet once more three weeks from now in Calgary.

As the two weakest defenses in the CFL this year, both teams allowing 28.8 ppg at this stage of the campaign, you can expect a high-scoring affair even though Saskatchewan came up lame last week. Considering they'll have the hometown fans behind them, lean in favor of the Stamps this time around.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Calgary 38, Saskatchewan 27

HAMILTON TIGER-CATS (6-6) AT TORONTO ARGONAUTS (3-9)

DATE & TIME: Saturday, October 1, 7:00 p.m. (et).

GAME NOTES: Coming off a huge win in the second annual Touchdown Atlantic game last weekend in Moncton, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats get back to a traditional venue this week as they challenge the Toronto Argonauts at Rogers Centre.

Hamilton, which hasn't won back-to-back games since late July, put itself in position to make that happen this week after blowing the doors off Calgary in a 55-36 final. During the matchup with the Stampeders, quarterback Kevin Glenn converted 16-of-23 passes for 276 yards and three touchdowns, with two of the scoring tosses going to Marcus Thigpen who turned his six receptions into a game-high 139 yards. Thigpen also returned a missed field goal 118 yards for a touchdown near the end of the third quarter as well.

On the ground the club ordered up another three majors, one each by Avon Cobourne (84 yards), Terry Grant and Quinton Porter, who often finds himself involved in the action on short-yardage plays.

As for the Argonauts, they won for just the third time this season and the second time since the opener when they topped Calgary in a 23-21 decision. Last week, the team needed more than just a little luck to secure a narrow 25-24 win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, getting the margin of victory from a single by Noel Prefontaine with under a minute remaining in regulation.

From a defensive standpoint, the Argos put a severe hurting on Winnipeg as they knocked out both Fred Reid and Carl Volny with torn ACLs, and also sent quarterbacks Buck Pierce and Alex Brink to the sidelines as well with aggravated ribs and a shoulder injury, respectively. Nevertheless, even as the Blue Bombers watched significant contributors fall to the turf they still were in the mix right up until the end.

Toronto got by with just 268 yards of total offense, a mere 88 yards through the air as Steven Jyles converted 11-of-20 passes for one touchdown, was sacked three times and had three passes intercepted by his old team which traded him away to Toronto in March. Running back Cory Boyd stepped up to produce a game-high 109 yards rushing on just 12 attempts, but was kept out of the end zone. Instead, it was Jyles who crossed the goal line from 18 yards out in the first quarter.

Chad Owens, who caught five passes for 34 yards in the decision last week, was huge for the Argonauts when it came to kick returns, bringing seven punts back for 85 yards and posting 142 yards on six kickoff returns as well. Just as was the case last season, Owens has been huge when it comes to combined yards in this league and easily paces the CFL with 2,211 yards at the moment. His next closest competitor is Hamilton's Thigpen who has 1,542 yards. Even though he might have some issues keeping his hands on the ball when he's taking big hits, Owens is still someone who can contribute mightily to Toronto's efforts when given the opportunity.

Getting the ball into the hands of Owens is becoming more and more important given how poorly the Toronto offense has operated, first under Cleo Lemon and now under the direction of Jyles, the latter showing a dismal 59.4 efficiency rating since assuming the starting quarterback job. Toronto's 20.9 ppg this season is easily the lowest average of any team in the CFL and it doesn't help that the defense, outside of last week, has been horrendous with a league-high 400.5 ypg allowed.

At the other end of the scoring spectrum is Hamilton, which is second at the moment behind Montreal with 29.2 ppg. The Cats have a quarterback under center in Glenn, who is tied for second in the league in passing scores with 18 and consequently has the third-best passer rating as well at 96.6, due in large part to his passing touchdown frequency. But make no mistake, Hamilton is also getting the job done thanks to Cobourne who, since coming over from the two- time Grey Cup Champion Montreal Alouettes, is third in the league in rushing with 735 yards and has reached the end zone eight times on the ground.

Dating back to 1950 and only taking into account regular-season matchups, Hamilton is ahead in the all-time series with the Argos by a count of 121-86-2. The Tiger-Cats won the most recent meeting by a score of 37-32 back in August, which means the squad has captured five in a row and six of the last seven encounters. The teams are set to close out the regular season against each other as well on November 3.

Jyles is still finding himself as the starter for the Argos and has yet to show that he is completely comfortable directing the offense. Last week Toronto's defense saved the day, but this time around Hamilton won't allow that to happen.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Hamilton 31, Toronto 17

Overall Sportsbook Betting Lines Predictions: 29-19. Last Week's Predictions: 1-3.