Super Bowl rematch will be tight
Football Betting Lines
01/26/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Giants and Patriots have played four times over the last 10 years with each team winning twice. However, New York came through with the victory in the most important of the four, taking Super Bowl XLII, 17-14.
That low-scoring contest has been indicative of most of their meetings as three of the four match-ups have gone under the total. In fact, the last time they met on Nov. 6, the two teams combined to score 44 points despite a a 51.5 posted total.
Tom Brady has had pretty decent numbers the last three contests against the Giants, averaging 321 yards per game with a 64-percent completion percentage and five touchdowns compared to two interceptions. Nevertheless, he has won just one of those games.
On the other side, Eli Manning has been extremely consistent, throwing for 250, 251 and 255 yards in the three meetings, completing 58 percent of his tosses, three of which fell into the hands of the Patriots defense. Despite those totals, he's thrown eight touchdown passes - three more than Brady.
Most of the recent Super Bowls have favored the under, including the previous match-up between these two clubs. In fact, only two of the last seven games went over the total and both of those contests involved the Steelers.
If the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI on Feb. 5, they will have followed their own footsteps of winning three road playoff games and then the Super Bowl. Furthermore, another victory will mark the fourth time in the last seven years a wild-card representative has gone on and taken the big prize.
One thing is for certain, they will not be underestimating New England despite their recent success against coach Bill Belichick's squad. The Patriots are very capable of winning their first title since 2005 and, in fact, should be hungrier than New York since they have not won the Super Bowl in seven years.
On the other hand, the Giants beat New England this season with wide receiver Hakeem Nicks and running back Ahmad Bradshaw out of the lineup, and the addition of those two skilled players should keep this one close throughout.
Four years ago, I predicted a Giants' cover along with a possible upset in Super Bowl XLII. I am less confident about New York's chances of covering this time around, considering the line is only three points.
New England is a far better team than it showed last weekend against Baltimore, which has one of the better passing defenses in the NFL, and this time around, the Pats take on a defense that ranked 29th against the pass this season. Sure, the Giants have fared much better in this category during the postseason, but it's asking a lot to shut down Brady and his offensive arsenal after they played so poorly against Baltimore. Conversely, Manning has clearly reached "elite" status and New England's pass defense is just as bad as New York's, so this contest should be evenly matched.
THE REMATCH FAVORS THE LOSER
When two teams meet for the Super Bowl after playing each other during the regular season, the loser of the regular season game has come back to win the Super Bowl the last three times.
Ironically, it happened when these two clubs met a few seasons ago. The Giants won the Super Bowl as 12.5-point underdogs after New England prevailed in the final week of the regular season, 38-35, as a 13-point favorite.
The Patriots also were involved in comparable circumstances back in 2001. They beat the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, 20-17, as two-touchdown underdogs after losing to St. Louis, 24-17, as eight-point dogs during the regular season.
Two years earlier, the Titans faced the Rams in Week 8, winning outright as three-point underdogs, 24-21. Still, St. Louis bounced back to win the Super Bowl, 23-16, as a seven-point favorite.
New England is faced with a scenario similar to the Rams that year. The Patriots, who were favored and lost the regular-season match-up, are now the betting choice to win the rematch.
Will New York be able to stop the streak at three or will New England continue the trend and make it four straight? The one thing going for the Giants is their ability to hold onto the football. Coach Tom Coughlin's club has committed just one turnover in three postseason games.
It is interesting to note that both squads did not have much success against playoff-bound teams during the regular season. New England was 1-2 in beating Denver and losing to Pittsburgh and the Giants. New York's lone win came against the Patriots. The Giants lost to New Orleans, Green Bay and San Francisco.
On the positive side, New York has bounced back with solid playoff performances, including victories over two of those teams, the Packers and 49ers.
I am not 100-percent confident in the Giants' ability to win this game outright or even to cover the three-point spread. However, I am convinced they are good enough to keep the game inside single digits. Additionally, I feel the final score will be similar (or slightly higher) to this season's earlier meeting when New York came away with the 24-20 victory.
When those two beliefs merged together, the best way to attack Super Bowl XLVI is to play a teaser, taking New York plus nine points along with under 61.5 points.
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Betting Football
NFL Football Betting OnlineIs there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.